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Win Probabilities: The Mathematics of Fairness

How the Algorithm Works

One of the most common questions we receive is: “Is the wheel rigged?”

For the merchant (you), the answer is: Yes, absolutely. You decide exactly who wins what. For the user, the answer is: It feels completely random.

This guide allows you to look under the hood of our Fair Play Algorithm using the Random Number Generator (RNG), explaining how to configure a Jackpot Configuration that is exciting for users but safe for your budget.


1. Weighted Probability Explained

The wheel utilizes a “Weighted Choice” logic. It does not use the physical size of the slices to determine the winner.

  • Visual vs. Mathematical: You can design a wheel where every slice looks equal (360 degrees / 8 slices = 45 degrees each). However, Slice A can have a 99% chance of winning, while Slice B has a 1% chance.
  • The Bucket: Imagine a bucket with 100 balls.
    • Prize A has 10% probability -> We put 10 balls named “A” in the bucket.
    • Prize B has 90% probability -> We put 90 balls named “B” in the bucket.
  • The Spin: When the user clicks spin, the code reaches into the bucket and picks one ball blindly.

2. Rigged Wheel Logic (The Illusion of Near Miss)

To maximize excitement, the wheel physics can simulate a “Near Miss.”

  • The Scenario: The RNG determines the user will win the “10% Off” prize.
  • The Spin: The wheel spins fast, then slows down. It creeps past the “$500 Jackpot” slice slowly… slowing… slowing… and then just barely ticks over to land on the “10% Off” slice next to it.
  • The Effect: This “Near Miss” triggers a powerful psychological response. The user feels they almost won big, which keeps them engaged with the small prize they actually received.

3. Configuring the Percentages

In the “Coupons” tab, you will see a percentage slider or input next to each slice.

The 100% Rule

The total of all slice probabilities must equal 100%. The system will usually warn you if it doesn’t.

A Safe Configuration Strategy

If you have 6 Slices, do not set them all to 16.6% (Random). You will go bankrupt giving away your best prizes.

Recommended “Safe” Distribution:

  1. Jackpot ($100 Gift Card): 0% or 1%. (Use “Max Winners” to cap this at 1).
  2. Great Prize (50% Off): 5%.
  3. Good Prize (20% Off): 20%.
  4. Common Prize (10% Off): 30%.
  5. Common Prize (Free Shipping): 30%.
  6. Loss (Try Again): 14%.

Total: 100%


4. Zero Probability Slices

Can you set a probability to 0%?

  • Yes.
  • Why? Sometimes you want to display a massive prize on the wheel (like “Win a Ferrari”) to get people to sign up, but you currently have 0 Ferraris to give away.
  • Risk: This is ethically grey. It is called “Bait and Switch.” We recommend setting it to a very low non-zero number (like 0.01%) and strictly limiting the inventory, rather than making it impossible.

5. Fairness & Client-Side Security

Can a savvy user “hack” the wheel to win the Jackpot?

  • Server-Side Decision: The outcome of the spin is determined by your WordPress server before the wheel even starts spinning on the user’s screen.
  • The API Call: When the user clicks “Spin,” an AJAX request goes to the server. The server runs the RNG math, selects the prize, subtracts from inventory, and sends back the result: { "win": true, "slice_id": 4 }.
  • The Animation: The JavaScript in the browser merely plays an animation that ends at Slice 4. The user cannot manipulate the physics engine to force it to stop elsewhere, because the result was already decided. This ensures total Probability Distribution integrity.

Conclusion

Understanding the math allows you to be generous without being reckless. You control the odds. You are the House. And the House always wins (while making the player feel great about it).

Need Help?

Math not adding up? 👉 Contact Our Support Team

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